Philippine grids risk red alerts during Super El Niño
The government expects the weather event to peak towards the end of 2026 and continue into early 2027, reducing generation as electricity demand rises.
All three major Philippine electricity grids could face supply shortages during the coming Super El Niño, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin warned on November 9. Department of Energy projections indicate that, without further intervention, Visayas could see around four red alerts, Luzon one and Mindanao two.
A red alert means electricity supplies cannot cover both consumer demand and the operating reserves required by the grid, increasing the risk of interruptions. Yellow alerts, indicating inadequate operating reserves, are also possible as heat puts generating facilities under greater strain.
Garin said hotter conditions could simultaneously curb power generation and increase consumption. Hydropower facilities are expected to be hardest hit, operating at only 40 per cent capacity, while solar output could be restricted to around 80 per cent. Plants fuelled by coal, natural gas and oil may also suffer disruptions.
Each 1-degree temperature rise adds 100 megawatts to electricity demand, according to Garin. Battery energy storage systems currently contribute only 253 MW of capacity to support the grids. She also warned that ageing and non-compliant plants could suffer unexpected outages in hot weather.
The department is seeking backup generation in case supply conditions prove worse than projected. Garin said officials were looking for additional power barges, which take about three months to arrive, and coordinating with operators of barges already in the country and standby diesel and coal plants. The department is also taking an inventory and preparing private-sector operators.
