Northern Vietnam hydropower reservoirs could face water shortages in May 2027

Seven major reservoirs serving hydropower plants in northern Vietnam could lack sufficient water to generate electricity from early May 2027 if inflows keep falling, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. The warning forms part of its water outlook for the Red River–Thai Binh basin during November 2026-June 2027.

The ministry expects El Nino to remain very strong until January 2027, then weaken. It forecasts below-average rainfall across the basin through June, reducing river flows. At October's end, the reservoirs together contained around 25.6 billion cubic metres of water, or 92 per cent of capacity.

In its first scenario, the ministry projects storage of around 22.4 billion cubic metres following irrigation releases in January-March 2027. That would leave approximately 1 billion cubic metres less than the minimum needed for peak-season electricity demand and socio-economic development.

Under that scenario, increased hydropower demand or shortfalls in other generating sources could prevent the reservoirs from meeting electricity system needs from early June. The risk could begin in May if April-June inflows decline at rates comparable to 2019-2020 and 2023-2024.

The more adverse scenario indicates a post-irrigation deficit of around 1.48 billion cubic metres, equivalent to 240 million kWh. If inflows continue to decline during April-June, generation requirements might become unachievable from early May. By early June 2027, most reservoirs could fall to levels that prevent normal power generation.

The ministry called for water conservation and contingency planning. It asked reservoir operators to give priority to household supplies and essential downstream production while preserving water for peak electricity demand. The Ministry of Industry and Trade was instructed to adapt the generation mix to water availability and use more alternative energy sources.